Week 44

There is a high demand for hazelnuts, but due to the instability of the Turkish Lira, the seller is not always easy to find in the domestic market. Many companies are aware that when TMO reaches a high stock amount (+100.000 MT), they will have to purchase raw materials from TMO at much higher prices than the current prices for product supply. That’s why most companies in the free market are in a buying position.

This buying position of the companies in the domestic market, the need for stocks, prevents the prices from being lowered in TL in the free market, but this year, due to the drying problems of the farmers and the quality problems in hazelnuts, it cannot cause a rapid upward acceleration in the prices in TL terms.

We think that there is a period in which short-term needs must be met until TMO reaches its goals. Although it seems like the right time to meet the needs of 2022, the interest rate decision that the FED will make this month and next month and the change it can make in its bond purchase policy may be an important criterion to meet the needs of 2022.

The FED’s decision to reduce bond purchases (rumors and messages in this direction) may cause the currencies of developing countries to depreciate against exchange rates. In other words, TL may lose value again and this may turn into an opportunity to meet the needs of 2022.