Week 52

Export preparations for the first week of 2022 continue in the last week of the year. In the period when the exchange rate was at its maximum level (2 weeks ago), the uncertain effect created by the high hazelnut prices in TL continues to be reflected in the free market.

Although the prices in TL terms have decreased, the expectation of whether the prices will rise again causes uncertainties in the free market, and it has been difficult to find the desired quality and quantity of products in the domestic market. The domestic market is getting narrower. Most of the exporting factories, which think that this shrinkage will continue in the coming weeks, are in the position of buyers in the free market, but the hazelnut in-shell suppliers slowed the supply of hazelnuts to the market due to the expectation of high prices that may occur again. ( Stock ) This situation weakens the hand of industrialists and creates different export prices in the market.

While the bank interest rates are so high, it is a question of how long the problem in the supply of hazelnut in-shell (power of stockists) will continue.

Another curiosity is when and how TMO will intervene in the market. The expectation of the industrialists, who do not have a strong supply network, is that TMO will offer its hazelnuts to the market before it is too late. However, the same expectation is not in question for the strong industrialists who have a strong supply network and who have already taken care of the uncertainties and filled their warehouses with hazelnuts.

In the export part, as we mentioned, we can encounter different prices. The reason for this difference is the uncertainties mentioned above and the positions of the industrialists. In this table, the factor that somewhat absorbs the uncertainties on the export side in the short term is the stability in exchange rates. USD/TL is in the 11 -12 band, but its movements in this range are still aggressive. The stability of the money  system newly created by the government is also a matter of concern in the long run. We will see the definite effects of this system together in three months. Annual inflation rates will be announced on January 3, 2022. We will wait and see if these rates will cause a movement in the exchange rate again.

We wish everyone a happy new year with their loved ones. See you in the second week of 2022.