Week 50

Despite the low demand, hazelnut prices reached an all-time high in TL terms in the fastest way due to high inflation caused by the depreciation of the Turkish Lira. In the past weeks, the rise in the exchange rates suppressed the export prices despite the increase in the prices in TL, but for a few weeks, this pressure was broken and the prices started to increase on the basis of foreign currency as well.

It is very difficult to predict whether this increase will continue in this way. It is expected that the Turkish Central Bank will cut interest rates again at its meeting tomorrow, so the Turkish Lira has started to lose value even more before the meeting. We will wait and see how the decisions taken at the meeting will reflect on hazelnut prices and export prices in TL.

These uncertainties in money markets and the resulting inflation prevent industries from seeing them and pose a risk. For this reason, we are now encountering very different prices in the hazelnut market. Exporters give margin prices. That is, they bid not according to today’s prices, but according to the prices that may occur tomorrow (in the future). Because no one knows what kind of increase will be encountered tomorrow (in the future).

Although it is not known how much further inflation will cause a price increase in the first quarter, the effect of TMO will be added to this increasing trend in prices, so it is not possible to predict how much of a price increase we will encounter.

On the other hand, shipping prices are increasing too much and there are timing problems especially in road transportation because there are long queues and crowds at the Bulgarian border gate. This affects estimated delivery times and affects availability of carriers.

As we enter the new year, we think that it is the right time to fill your warehouses early by considering all these factors.