Week 6

If we look at the stagnation in the hazelnut market statistically, the export value made in January 2022 is 31,963 mt. This is the highest export value reached compared to the same month of the last 5 years. (For this reason, it is more correct to say that it is not very active rather than stagnant) But, this tonnage is the lowest export value compared to the last 3 months of the 2021-2022 period. Export figures of 38,603 mt in October 2021, 45,642 mt in November and 43,791 mt in December were reached.

According to these data, we see a sharp decrease in January 2022. This sharp decline has no effect on the sellers’ desire to sell in the short term, but if this sharp decline in demand continues, and if the yield count results are higher than expected, there may not be an increase in prices contrary to the expectations of stockists. However, in the long term, we will observe together whether the resistance that has occurred in prices will experience a downward breakout.

It should not be forgotten that the value of demand, which is currently the main determining factor in the short term, is less than January in every February according to the statistics of the last 5 years.

These possibilities are directly dependent on the government’s monetary policies and the stability in exchange rates. Predictions are made by assuming that the Turkish lira maintains its value at these levels for the time being. A new devaluation or sharp currency fluctuations completely change the picture.